Let’s set aside for a moment the facts of climate change and consider this from the Government’s perspective.
What’s the sudden motivation for these new policies? Why are so many countries simultaneously announcing targets? Why are the dates so soon?
The first line of the Road to Zero plan reveals a budding answer to all of these questions. It reads “Our mission is to put the UK at the forefront of the design and manufacturing of zero emission vehicles…”
First and foremost, the ambition of Road to Zero is built around a heart of economics. To grapple the full depth of this, we first need to consider the road to the Road to Zero: how did we get to this stage?
The idea that fuel-based vehicles have always stood alone at the top is a strangely common one. The truth is that electric vehicles have battled toe-to-toe since the mid 1800’s, and were in fact more popular for several applications. Electric taxis and personal cars in America, for a brief time, out numbered fuelled cars. And relevant technology lives on today in more naturally conducive transportation, such as railways.
The shortfall of electric vehicles was most notably their effective range. A gas-guzzler could plod on for as long as you gave it an occasional drink, and there were plenty of places to top up. An electric vehicle, however, was tightly limited to a more local area. And while some services did exist to provide a rapid battery-swap service, it still required you to remain in the local vicinity. Which goes some way of explaining why it was so popular among taxis, local post delivery, and the local-centric majority of individual persons. Not to mention milk floats.
As time passed, oil spread further and farther and with relative ease. Internal combustion engines became increasingly powerful, capable of huge leaps in strength.
The electric infrastructure however, simply couldn’t keep up. By the early 20th century, it had become clear that the miniscule battery capacities and frail power of electric motors were no longer able to compete. And regardless, to supply the necessary energy to meet demand would be simply inconceivable. Oil had won.
Not much thought was given to it by manufacturers after that. It was resigned to a plaything of engineering enthusiasts, electrical buffs, and research specialists. Only occasionally resurfacing as a kind of test of capability – meekly asking “are we ready to try this again?”.
For every decade that passed, that question emboldened a little. Landing electric rovers on the moon. Improved infrastructure. Stronger motors. Lithium-ion batteries. Renewable energy sources.
Renewable energy has an edge – an ace up its sleeve. It always was and continues to be inevitable. Oil outpaced electricity in the early years, but electricity has been biding its time, building slowly and surely. It has been obvious for a long time – long before any serious climate change research even began – that some kind of replacement would one day be necessary. Oil is finite. So the research never stopped. Enthusiasts continued to be as enthused as ever. Sparks flew in ever-increasing number.
Then, in 2008, it came back with a vengeance. The Tesla Roadster. The first serious champion in the ring for over a century. Not the fastest, nor the most enduring in miles, nor the most affordable by any means. But it punctuated something with a resounding boom that could not be ignored. It did not ask – it said: “We are ready to try this again”.
Another decade has passed: battery technology refined for purpose; motors redesigned for power and efficiency; commercial viability establishing itself as demand rose and costs fell. Perhaps most telling, the establishment and continuing advancements of Formula E secured the electric motor’s place in high-end performance, and consequent filtering down to the commercial level as has always been the case with F1. And it repeats: “We are ready”.
Electric vehicles, from cars to lorries, are finally feasible again. In part due to the rapidly growing demand for bigger and better iterations, consequently ‘fuelling’ more advanced development. Manufacturers are paying attention again. New competition has bloomed across the automotive industry, racing down the new commercial path that Tesla began to pave and prove viable.
So that’s where we are today. Electric cars are viable, in demand, and in enthusiastically growing supply.
This is the first thing to take note of: the Road to Zero is not an initiative. It’s in response to an already existing trend.
A rapidly growing and inevitable trend. Electric cars are coming, and they’re going to take over.
So let’s return to that first line: “Our mission is to put the UK at the forefront of the design and manufacturing of zero emission vehicles…”
The Road to Zero is not solely an imposition on the few remaining manufacturers refusing to enter the race. It’s a business plan.
In 2017, Cars were both the top export good and import good in the UK. Refined oil was the 5th highest import good. And this isn’t new. They’ve been at the top of the charts for a long time.
Vehicles are a huge part of the global market. In the same way that manufacturers are rising to compete for zero-emission vehicle superiority, countries are racing to re-establish these expanding industries. That would explain the timing of this kind of ‘initiative’ after motivation is already evident in the industry. It would explain why multiple countries are joining the fight simultaneously – and with competitive timeframes. Some conversations are already taking place to bring back the 2040 target to 2030, and debates to include intermediate percentage targets along the way have been ignited also.
With such a complex and global collection of situations, it’s obviously not as simple as a single motive. But all considered, Road to Zero is made far more possible in the current landscape of supply, demand, and competition.
So there we have it. A giant leap towards carbon emission reduction without carbon emission being the major driving force of the plan. Our children’s children will be driving electric cars painlessly, and wondering how we ever managed with an internal combustion engine chugging away under the bonnet. With any luck, the UK will be spearheading those vehicles as we move forward into renewable energy in unison. Electric will have won – a century-long feud resolved. It is, quite frankly, genius.
(4 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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