Unstoppable UK Renewables

Last year, we made some optimistic and speculative projections for global renewables. In just a few short months, we now have reason to be even more optimistic in the UK specifically.

In a report published by EnAppSys – specialists in processing energy data – we can get an excellent overview of energy generation during 2018. More critically, they outline the years that have brought us to this point, and what we can likely expect for the near future.

Let’s take a trip through the recent history of energy generation.

The year is 2012. Coal-sourced energy generation is at the highest point in years, making up for a steep decline in gas-sourced energy. Renewables have stolen a modest slice of that energy demand too (we’ll be seeing more of this), especially over the last 2 years, during which generation doubled.

Over the next 2 years – it’s 2014 now – coal falls back to its lowest level in over a decade. Renewables continues its steady upward trend; it’s on par with nuclear power now.

Gas remains relatively low but consistent until a year after, in 2015, it gets a resurgence: a 50% increase in gas-sourced generation from 2015 to 2016. No doubt strongly related to the alluring fracking licences the UK government granted at the time. Renewable generation remained still, only slightly higher than it was in 2015, but something incredible happened by the end of 2016…

For the first time in history, coal generation plummeted below renewable source generation. Far below.

By the end of 2016, coal-sourced energy generation dropped to barely a third compared to the previous. And that’s well under half of what renewables generated in the same year.

For perspective, in 2018: coal generated around 15TWh total; gas remained the reigning champion at around 115TWh total; and renewables is on its heels at around 96TWh.

Coal now only provides 5% of the total energy generation, down from its highest point over this decade: 41% in 2012.

Between 2016 and 2018 – bringing us to today, in early 2019 – coal and gas have declined steadily by around 5 TWh per year. Each.

Meanwhile, renewable generation grew by around 14TWh per year.

Following this steady trend, renewables will meet or surpass gas generation this year, and fossil fuels in total during 2020.

This analysis is based on very strong data, so while this may be a close call, the question is really only a matter of how soon – not if. And the margin of error isn’t years – it’s months.

The data demonstrates this exceptionally well. While gas, coal, and even nuclear sources of energy fluctuate year on year to meet demand and respond to other market forces (like comparative fuel prices), renewables only ever slows in growth. Generation never drops.

There are two major factors as to why this is the case.

Renewable sources do need maintenance to keep them productive, but the main players rely on no actual material consumption. They are passive sources. Energy generation does not depend on how much fuel you give it, it depends on how many points of generation you have. So as long as renewable generation equipment continues to be built, it stands to reason that generation will grow, year on year. And that’s exactly what we see, unilaterally.

For the same reason, renewables get a kind of easy pass in grid bids. The actual cost of energy generation is low, so that energy can often undercut other sources. When the wind blows, and the sun shines, renewable generation is first in line. So only after that generation is fuel expended to meet demand. There would be no sense in consuming gas for energy that a solar panel is already prepared to give for a fraction of the cost.

Which brings us to an interesting point. The drawback of this kind of passive generation is inherent in its nature. We don’t control when those sources generate energy, and nor do we control precisely how much. This will be less of an issue when infrastructure is better equipped to store power efficiently, but does leave an important and significant gap that only non-renewable energy can currently fill: bringing generation up to meet demand.

2019 is going to be an exciting year. With energy generation becoming cleaner and more accessible, these upcoming landmarks in the industry symbolise a drastic change in the way we will view energy in the coming decades.